Hi, I'm your friendly Whidbey Island real estate specialist. In the world of real estate, having a savvy local expert by your side is like having a lighthouse in a storm—especially now. While economists paint broad strokes about the Western Washington housing market, what's truly happening on our beautiful island? Let's dive into the latest data and translate what it means for you.
The recent chatter across the real estate world, sparked by Windermere's Chief Economist Jeff Tucker's latest analysis, has been about a market in flux. A pullback in April's pending sales, influenced by stock market jitters and political announcements, led to fewer closed sales in May across the Northwest MLS. But as the stock market found its footing, the housing market is also showing signs of a comeback.
But the big question is: How does the wider regional story translate to the unique Whidbey Island real estate market? Let's look at the key metrics for our local communities.
Across the entire Northwest MLS, closed single-family home sales saw a 3% dip in May compared to last year, a direct echo of April's uncertainty. Pending sales, a more current indicator of buyer demand, flattened out year-over-year after a 4% drop in April, suggesting a rebound.
Here on Whidbey, however, we're marching to the beat of our own drum. While the region is seeing a slight cooling, the island's market is showing resilience. Thinking of buying or selling on the island? Understanding these nuances is key. Partnering with a Whidbey Island Specialist ensures you're not just getting general data, but actionable, hyper-local insights.
On the supply side, the story for Western Washington is one of significant growth. New listings jumped by 13% across the NWMLS, and active listings ended May a whopping 39% higher than in 2024. This is great news for buyers, who now have the most options they've seen in years.
This trend holds true for the Whidbey Island real estate market. This expanding inventory offers a golden opportunity for buyers to find their perfect island retreat without the intense competition of recent years. For sellers, it means that strategic pricing and presentation, guided by a local expert, are more important than ever.
Regionally, the median price for a single-family home slipped by 1% to $677,500, a pause in price appreciation caused by more inventory and cautious buyers. The greater Seattle area saw prices dip slightly, heavily influenced by a 1.2% drop in King County.
But here's where hiring a Whidbey Island Realtor truly pays off. Our local market tells a different, more positive story. Far from declining, our property values are holding strong, demonstrating a continued, robust demand for the island lifestyle.
While regional reports provide a good map, you need a local guide to navigate the terrain. The Whidbey Island real estate market is proving to be robust and distinct from the broader Western Washington trends. We have growing inventory, which is a significant win for buyers, coupled with strong property values, which is excellent news for sellers.
Economic uncertainty and mortgage rates around 7% are still factors, of course. But the data shows that the dream of island living is alive and well. Buyers have more choices, and sellers can be confident in the enduring value of their investment.
Whether you're looking to sell your property or find your forever home in Langley, Oak Harbor, Coupeville, or anywhere in between, the market holds promise. Let's connect and discuss how these trends create opportunity for you. With a dedicated Whidbey Island Realtor, you'll have the expert partnership you need to achieve your real estate goals with confidence.
Contributed by Si Fisher
Easter on Whidbey Island is like opening a giant, community-wide Easter egg: filled with surprises, wrapped in the beautiful scenery of the Pacific Northwest, and, let's be honest, probably a bit more chocolate than anyone needs. This year, the island is hopping with activities for everyone from the tiniest of tots to adults who are kids at heart. Here's your golden egg of information on where to find the fun!
Kick-off your Easter weekend with a bang at the Holmes Harbor Rod & Gun Club on March 30, at noon. Kids 11 and under are invited to hunt for Easter treasures, enjoy prizes, and munch on hot dogs. And for a little extra magic, the local 4H group will introduce some adorable animals. Don't forget your basket, and try to hop in by 11:30 AM to catch all the fun.
Date & Time: March 30, Noon - 1:00 PM
Location: 3334 Brooks Hill Road, Langley, WA 98260
Prefer a hunt with a side of fizz? Head to The Thirsty Crab Brewery on March 30, from 10:00 AM to 12:00 PM, for an egg-stravaganza that includes more than just hunting for eggs. This event is bursting with activities – think Easter Bunny photos, a bouncy castle, and crafts, making it a perfect family outing. Plus, with age-appropriate hunts for those 12 and under, every child gets a fair crack at finding those hidden treasures.
Date & Time: March 30, 10:00 AM - 12:00 PM
Location: Thirsty Crab Brewery, 9000 SR 525, Clinton
Hop your way to Meerkerk Gardens for an Easter Egg Hunt amidst flowers in peak bloom! On March 30, with hunts at 11 AM and again at 2 PM, children 10 & under can explore this botanical paradise for hidden eggs. Little explorers up to age 5 have their own special area near the Gazebo, while the 6-10-year-olds embark on their adventure in a separate spot. Don't miss the chance to meet the Meerkerk Bunny and experience the gardens during the most enchanting time of the year.
Date & Time: March 30, 11:00 AM - 2:30 PM
Location: 3531 Meerkerk Lane, Greenbank
Next on the list, Whidbey Farm & Market is pulling out all the stops for their 2nd annual Easter event, happening on the last two weekends in March. Families can enjoy an egg hunt, a candy cannon, a bouncy house, and a meet-and-greet with the Easter Bunny. And for the adults? An Easter Egg Hunt under the stars on March 29th, with over $500 worth of prizes, games, bonfires, and music to keep the festive spirit alive.
Date & Time: March 30, 11:00 AM - 3:00 PM
Location: 1240 Arnold Road, Oak Harbor
Join the Oak Harbor Main Street Association for a cherished community event at Smith Park. On March 30, from 11:30 AM to 1:00 PM, families can enjoy a sensory-friendly hunt before the main event at 12:30 PM for kids up to age 10. It’s not just about the eggs; learn about the majestic Garry Oak trees and snag some free books in this educational and fun-filled outing.
Date & Time: March 30, 11:30 AM - 1:00 PM
Location: Smith Park, SE Midway Boulevard & SE 9th Avenue, Oak Harbor
Between the egg hunts and the Easter Bunny meet-and-greets, we're reminded of the joys of community and the warmth of coming home. In the spirit of new beginnings this Easter, why not consider finding your perfect nest on Whidbey Island? Working with a local broker who knows the island inside and out can crack open a world of opportunities, whether you're buying, selling, or just exploring your options. Remember, the best hunts end with finding exactly what you were looking for, and in real estate, it's no different.
Happy Easter!
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This video shows Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2024. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market. See more market insights on our blog here.
This was number one on my list last year and, so far, my forecast was spot on. The reason why I’m calling it out again is because the market performed better in 2023 than I expected. Continued price growth, combined with significantly higher mortgage rates, might suggest to some that the market will implode in 2024, but I find this implausible.
The U.S. economy has been remarkably resilient, which has led the Federal Reserve to indicate that they will keep mortgage rates higher for longer to tame inflation. But data shows inflation and the broader economy are starting to slow, which should allow mortgage rates to ease in 2024. That said, I think rates will only fall to around 6% by the end of the year.
Although I expect a modest increase in listing activity in 2024, many homeowners will be hesitant to sell and lose their current mortgage rate. The latest data shows 80% of mortgaged homeowners in the U.S. have rates at or below 5%. Although they may not be inclined to sell right now, when rates fall to within 1.5% of their current rate, some will be motivated to move.
While many forecasters said home prices would fall in 2023, that was not the case, as the lack of inventory propped up home values. Given that it’s unlikely that there will be a significant increase in the number of homes for sale, I don’t expect prices to drop in 2024. However, growth will be a very modest 1%, which is the lowest pace seen for many years, but growth all the same.
During the pandemic there were a number of more affordable markets across the country that experienced significant price increases, followed by price declines post-pandemic. I expected home prices in those areas to take longer to recover than the rest of the nation, but I’m surprised by how quickly they have started to grow, with most markets having either matched their historic highs or getting close to it – even in the face of very high borrowing costs. In 2024, I expect prices to match or exceed their 2022 highs in the vast majority of metro areas across the country.
Although new construction remains tepid, builders are benefiting from the lack of supply in the resale market and are taking a greater share of listings. While this might sound like a positive for builders, it’s coming at a cost through lower list prices and increased incentives such as mortgage rate buy downs. Although material costs have softened, it will remain very hard for builders to deliver enough housing to meet the demand.
With home prices continuing to rise and the pace of borrowing costs far exceeding income growth, affordability will likely erode further in 2024. For affordability to improve, it would require either a significant drop in home values, a significant drop in mortgage rates, a significant increase in household incomes, or some combination of the three. But I’m afraid this is very unlikely. First-time home buyers will be the hardest hit by this continued lack of affordable housing.
The government has started to take housing and affordability more seriously, with several states already having adopted new land use policies aimed at releasing developable land. In 2024, I hope cities and counties will continue to ease their restrictive land use policies. I also hope they’ll continue to streamline the permitting process and reduce the fees that are charged to builders, as these costs are passed directly onto the home buyer, which further impacts affordability.
Many expected that the end of forbearance would bring a veritable tsunami of homes to market, but that didn’t happen. At its peak, almost 1-in-10 homes in America were in the program, but that has fallen to below 1%. That said, foreclosure starts have picked up, but still remain well below pre-pandemic levels. Look for delinquency levels to continue rising in 2024, but they will only be returning to the long-term average and are not a cause for concern.
2023 will likely be remembered as the year when home sales were the lowest since the housing bubble burst in 2008. I expect the number of homes for sale to improve modestly in 2024 which, combined with mortgage rates trending lower, should result in about 4.4 million home sales. Ultimately though, demand exceeding supply will mean that sellers will still have the upper hand.
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
The following analysis of select counties of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.
The pace of job growth continues to slow in Western Washington, as the region added only 21,907 new positions over the past 12 months. This represented a growth rate of 1.4%, which was the lowest pace of new jobs added since the pandemic ended.
The regional unemployment rate in August was 5.8%, which was marginally below the 6% rate we saw in the same quarter in 2022. A few smaller counties lost jobs over the past 12 months while King County’s employment levels rose a meager .4%, mainly due to job losses in the technology sector. I’ve said before that I’m not convinced that the U.S. is going to enter a recession; I still stand by that theory. Slowing job growth does not necessarily need to be a precursor to a recession, but I expect that we will see lackluster growth until next spring at the earliest.
❱ In the third quarter of 2023, 14,970 homes sold. This was down 22% from the third quarter of 2022 and 1% lower than in the second quarter of this year.
❱ Sales fell even as the average number of homes for sale increased 29.5% from the second quarter. This is clearly a sign that significantly higher mortgage rates are having an impact on the market.
❱ Sales fell in all counties except San Juan compared to the third quarter of 2022. They were up in 9 of the 14 counties covered in this report compared to the second quarter of 2023. San Juan, Mason, Grays Harbor, and Whatcom counties saw significant increases.
❱ Pending sales fell 6% compared to the second quarter of this year, suggesting that closings in the upcoming quarter may be lackluster unless mortgage rates fall, which I think is highly unlikely.
❱ Prices rose 2.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022 and were .6% higher than in the second quarter of this year. The average home sale price was $776,205.
❱ Compared to the second quarter of this year, sale prices were higher in all counties except Grays Harbor (-.5%), Kitsap (-1.5%), Clallam (-1.6%), Whatcom (-2.6%), and Skagit (-3%).
❱ Compared to the prior year, the pace of price growth slowed in the third quarter. This wasn’t too surprising given that the market was coming off record high prices in the summer of 2022. But what was surprising was that prices rose over the previous quarter despite the fact that mortgage rates were above 7% for almost the entire quarter.
❱ I don’t expect prices to move far from current levels in the coming months, and they likely won’t rise again until mortgage rates start to fall. When prices do rise, I anticipate that the pace of growth will be far more modest than we have become accustomed to.
Mortgage rates continued trending higher in the third quarter of 2023 and are now at levels we have not seen since the fall of 2000. Mortgage rates are tied to the interest rate (yield) on 10-year treasuries, and they move in the opposite direction of the economy. Unfortunately for mortgage rates, the economy remains relatively buoyant, and though inflation is down significantly from its high, it is still elevated. These major factors and many minor ones are pushing Treasury yields higher, which is pushing mortgage rates up. Given the current position of the Federal Reserve, which intends to keep rates “higher for longer,” it is unlikely that home buyers will get much reprieve when it comes to borrowing costs any time soon.
With such a persistently positive economy, I have had to revise my forecast yet again. I now believe rates will hold at current levels before starting to trend down in the spring of next year.
❱ It took an average of 32 days for homes to sell in the third quarter of 2023. This was 8 more days than in the same quarter of 2022, but 3 fewer days compared to the second quarter of this year.
❱ Snohomish and King counties were the tightest markets in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of only 19 days to find a buyer. Homes for sale in San Juan County took the longest time to find a buyer (57 days).
❱ All counties except Snohomish saw average days on market rise from the same period in 2022. Market time fell in 9 of the 14 counties compared to the prior quarter.
❱ The greatest fall in market time compared to the second quarter was in San Juan County, where market time fell 23 days.
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
Although it was good that listing activity rose in the third quarter, it still remains well below levels that can be considered normal. This is unlikely to change anytime soon given that over 86% of Washington homeowners with mortgages have an interest rate below 5% and more than a quarter have rates at or below 3%. There is little incentive for them to sell if they don’t have to.
More germane is the disconnect between what homeowners believe their homes are worth and what buyers can afford with mortgage rates in the mid-7% range. Most sellers appear to be getting their asking prices, or very close to it, which reflects their confidence in the market. However, home buyers are being squeezed by multi-decade high borrowing costs.
It is all quite a quandary. However, taking all the factors into consideration, sellers still have the upper hand but not enough to move the needle from the position it was in last quarter
Given all the factors discussed above, the needle stays in the same position as the last quarter. The market still heavily favors sellers, but if rates rise much further, headwinds will likely increase.
Contributed by Si Fisher
Lets embark on a journey of financial security and personal fulfillment! In today's dynamic world, making prudent financial decisions is paramount. When it comes to housing choices, the decision to rent or buy can profoundly impact your long-term financial well-being and overall lifestyle. While renting may seem like the path of least resistance, owning a home on Whidbey Island presents a wealth of benefits that can set you on a trajectory of financial security and personal fulfillment.
Purchasing a home transcends mere acquisition of a dwelling; it's an investment in your future. Unlike renting, where monthly payments vanish into the landlord's coffers, owning a home allows you to build equity, a valuable asset that appreciates over time. As you diligently pay down your mortgage and home values rise, your equity expands, bolstering your net worth and providing a financial safety net for the future.
If you've ever felt trapped in the relentless cycle of rent hikes, you're not alone. Rents have been steadily escalating for decades, straining many household budgets. Owning a home, on the other hand, offers stability and predictability. You lock in your monthly housing costs, shielding yourself from the whims of landlords and market fluctuations.
Whidbey Island presents an idyllic setting for those seeking a tranquil lifestyle amidst breathtaking natural beauty. With its charming towns, vibrant arts scene, and abundance of outdoor activities, Whidbey Island is a haven for those who appreciate a slower pace of life. And when it comes to real estate, Whidbey Island offers a diverse range of options, from cozy cottages to waterfront estates, catering to a variety of tastes and budgets.
Navigating the real estate market can be a daunting task, but with the guidance of an experienced Whidbey Island real estate specialist, you can make informed decisions and find the perfect home that aligns with your needs and aspirations. A local real estate agent can provide invaluable insights into market trends, neighborhoods, and the home buying process, ensuring a smooth and successful transition into homeownership.
Owning a home on Whidbey Island is more than just acquiring a property; it's an invitation to embrace a lifestyle of tranquility, natural beauty, and community spirit. Picture yourself strolling along pristine beaches, hiking through verdant forests, or indulging in the local arts scene. With a Whidbey Island real estate specialist by your side, you can unlock the door to this enriching lifestyle.
Buying a home on Whidbey Island is not just an investment in bricks and mortar; it's an investment in your well-being, happiness, and future. It's a chance to create a home that reflects your unique personality and provides a haven for you and your.
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Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner gives an updated analysis of the U.S. housing market in 2023, using data released by The National Association of REALTORS® on listing activity, home sales, price growth, and more.
This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
Hello there, I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew. The National Association of REALTORS® released their data on the U.S. housing market in August, and it contained a few things which I found interesting and wanted to share with you.
As you can clearly see here, the number of homes for sale remains at close to historic lows. When adjusted for seasonality, there were just 1.03 million single-family and condominium homes for sale in the month of August, and that’s down 8.3% from a year ago and the second lowest level in 2023. When adjusted for seasonal variations, there were just over 911,000 single-family homes for sale in the month, that’s 15% lower than a year ago and 36% below August of 2019. And the condominium market is not faring any better with just over 123,000 units available for purchase, listing activity was down year-over-year by just over 9%.
And to give you a little different perspective, this chart shows you the total number of units for sale in the month of August going back more than 20 years and I think it gives a pretty good indication as to how tight the U.S. housing market really is.
Now, we’ve talked before about the reasons why supply is so limited, and the blame is almost totally attributable to mortgage rates with sellers remarkably reluctant to move because that would mean losing the historically low mortgage rate that they currently benefit from. And as the old saying goes, “you can’t buy what’s not for sale,” and this is certainly true in the housing market today.
With such limited choice in the marketplace, it’s unsurprising to see home sales having plummeted following the pandemic induced surge we saw in 2021. At an annual sales rate of 4.04 million units, that is only 40,000 more than the low seen this January and we are now holding at levels we haven’t seen since 2010. Interestingly, single-family sales did see a little jump at the start of this year, but they have since pulled back—likely a function of rising financing costs, which were getting close to 7% in June.
But the condominium market, while certainly down significantly, appears to be somewhat more resilient. I find this interesting as we have not seen any palpable increase in listing activity for multifamily units.
When prices started to fall in the summer of 2022, many expected to see them continue to plunge in a manner similar to that seen following 2007 collapse, but that has certainly not been the case. Sale prices have rebounded and remain remarkably resilient—especially given significantly higher financing costs.
Single-family home prices paint a similar picture with prices down by 1.8% from peak; but up 3.7% year over year, and up 11.2% from the start of the year. Interestingly, sale prices in the Northeast were actually 3.5% higher in August than their 2022 peak. And condominium prices are just 0.1% below the high seen in June of last year. Prices are now up 6.2% year over year and are 11.6% higher than we saw at the end of 2022.
Now, of course the data shown here is unlikely to reflect the recent surge in mortgage rates so it will be interesting to see what impact that has not just on sales but sale prices when the September and October data is published.
My intuition suggests that—even with mortgage rates where they are today—as long as they don’t move significantly higher, prices at the national level are unlikely to collapse. But I do see sales volumes pulling back further as listing activity remains very constrained.
This chart shows a different way to look at the impact that mortgage rates are having on the market. The dark blue line shows year-over-year home price growth, and the light blue line shows the 12-month change in average mortgage payments.
Although we did see that annual growth in mortgage payments fall to just 10% in June of this year—the first time we have seen that since 2021—it has subsequently jumped back up. This means that a buyer of a median priced house in the U.S. is faced with payments that are 26 and a half percent higher than they were 12 months ago. At the same time, home price growth has stalled.
As I’ve mentioned in several past videos, I find it unlikely that inventory levels will increase significantly in 2023, and I also believe that supply will be constrained next year as well as rates remain at elevated levels.
As we know, it is this lack of inventory that has helped to support home prices; however, there is a breaking point. 10-year bond yields are holding at multi-year highs and do not appear to be thinking of pulling back at any time soon—especially given new bond issuances that the country is going bring to market in order to address our burgeoning debt levels.
And it’s because of this that I now expect to see rates remaining higher for longer, and the question then becomes how much tolerance will buyers have if mortgage rates hold where they are today or if they head closer to 8%.
Although I am not expecting this to happen, it is possible. And if it does, then sales will fall further and the underpinning of price stability will certainly be eroded. And there you have it. As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts on this subject so feel free to leave your comments below. Until next month, stay safe out there and I’ll see you soon. Bye now.
To see the latest housing data for your area, visit our quarterly Market Updates page.
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
This Charity is being spearheaded by Paula Peters from our property management division in partnership with the Readiness to Learn Foundation. We are on a mission to ensure no child goes cold this winter on Whidbey Island.
📆 Date: Now through mid-November
🌟 Six Glorious Years: This marks our sixth annual Coats for Kids drive. Over the past years, we’ve donated an astounding 1,200+ pieces of cold-weather clothing, with a significant majority being essential coats and jackets!
📦 Donation Boxes: If you would like to HELP, please drop off NEW coats and boots at our offices in Freeland or Langley through mid November
Freeland Office
360/331-6636 5531
5531 Freeland Avenue
Langley Office
360/221-8898
223 Second Street
💌 Distance No Bar: Purchase items online and have items shipped to our offices! Heartwarming support pours in from all corners, including a recent kind donation from a continued supporter in Florida!
💵 Monetary Donations: If you’re considering a monetary contribution, please write checks payable to “Readiness to Learn”.
🎯 100 Coats/Jackets! Alongside, we’ll happily accept rain boots, cozy hats, mittens, gloves, and warm socks.
📲 For our tech-savvy supporters, keep an eye out for our Amazon Wish List. After its success last year, it’s making a comeback!
🙏 When you donate, do let Paula know. Every contributor deserves a heartfelt acknowledgment!
🌈 Donations can range from toddler sizes to adult, and any color is welcome. Just a small reminder, please ensure all donated items are BRAND NEW WITH TAGS.
🔊 Let’s amplify our reach! Inform your clients, chat with your family, call up your friends, and let’s come together as a community for this noble cause.
Warm Hearts Make Warm Kids! Join us in this heartwarming endeavor and ensure every child on Whidbey Island experiences a cozy winter. Your contribution can make a world of difference! 🧡
Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner demonstrates how the U.S. housing market is adapting to low inventory levels. He touches on the new construction industry, supply changes in large metro areas, median home sale prices, and more.
This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
Hello there, I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew. As we are all aware, the housing market has softened considerably with the number of existing homes available to buy close to record lows. Today we are going to talk about supply, and how the market is starting to adapt to low inventory levels.
This chart shows the average number of homes on the market by year. Although year to date we have seen a little bit of an uptick, it’s clear the country remains supply-starved. And with just over three months of inventory—as opposed to the normal four to six—the market is clearly out of balance. But even though inventory levels have risen nationally, as I’ve said many times before, not all markets are equal.
This chart shows how supply levels have changed. The data here is representative of the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the country. The horizontal axis shows the change in inventory versus the second quarter of 2022, while the vertical axis shows the difference and the number of homes for sale versus the second quarter of 2019. I think you’ll agree that the difference is stark. Although two-thirds of the metropolitan areas have seen the number of homes for sale improved versus the same period a year ago, just one (Austin, TX) had more homes for sale higher in the second quarter of this year than it had in the second quarter of 2019.
Interestingly, on a percentage basis, smaller metro areas saw the greatest decline compared to three years ago. For example, in Hartford, CT, the average number of homes on the market in the second quarter was just over 900, down by 80% from the second quarter of 2019 where there was an average of over 4,400 units for sale. Supply levels were down by 78% in Stamford, CT; 75% in New Haven, CT; and 74% in Allentown, PA.
It is true that supply levels are generally higher when compared to a year ago, with the greatest increase being seen in select markets in Florida, Tennessee, Texas, and Oklahoma; however, other than in Austin, supply levels remain well below their long-term averages. So, how is the market adapting? The answer is rather interesting. Even with all the talk of escalating material, land, and labor costs, it’s the new home industry that has been taking advantage of the lack of housing supply.
This chart shows the share of new homes on the market compared to their resale counterparts—here we are just looking at single-family homes. Historically, new construction makes up roughly 10% of active listings at any one time, but as you can see here, that share has been rising not just since the end of the pandemic but for the past several years. Although off the high seen a few months ago, 30% of the single-family homes for sale this July were brand new. I find this particularly interesting because, historically speaking, a premium was paid in order to buy a new home rather than an existing one.
With the share of new homes for sale holding at a four-decade high, the share of sales themselves is at a level we haven’t seen since 2005. But even though we know that there is demand for housing, shouldn’t sales be constrained by mortgage rates? Well, what is happening is that builders are attracting buyers through incentives, and here we’re talking about mortgage rate buydowns which are becoming increasingly prevalent across the country.
In fact, a recent survey from John Burns Consulting suggested that 30% of home builders reported using interest buydowns more in the second quarter of this year than they had previously. And this is attracting buyers to visit new development communities.
An example of these buydowns is the 2/1 program that DR Horton—the largest home builder in the country—is offering at some communities. This program gives buyers a mortgage rate that starts at 3% for the first year, rises to 4% in year two, and then goes to 5% for the balance of the 30-year term. That’s pretty compelling, given where mortgage rates are today.
The bottom line is that as far as I can see, the new home industry will continue to take an outsized share of the market for the balance of 2023 and likely through most of 2024. That said, once the market starts to normalize, I expect them to pull back from these incentive programs, making them more likely to start raising asking prices, and we will return to the traditional spread between the prices of new and resale homes.
Although it’s pleasing to see more homes being built, I still believe that the country will still be running a housing deficit when it comes to meeting demographic demand and this will continue to hurt first-time buyers who continue to be priced out of the market.
As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts on this subject so feel free to leave your comments below. Until next month, stay safe out there and I’ll see you soon. Bye now.
To see the latest real estate market data for your area, visit our Market Update page.
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner gives an updated look at U.S. home prices and housing affordability in 2023 by examining two key second-quarter reports from ATTOM Data Solutions and the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).
This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
Hello there, I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew. Today we are going to look at home prices and housing affordability. To do this I will be looking at the second quarter sales price data from ATTOM Data Solutions and we will also look at the just released National Association of Home Builders Housing Opportunity Index for the second quarter.
Starting with the year-over-year change in sale prices at the state level, there aren’t any great surprises. For the past several months I’ve been saying that as the Western U.S. saw the greatest price growth during the pandemic, so it’s not surprising to see most states sale prices in the quarter below the level seen a year ago. But it was pleasing to see that sale prices in 36 states either matched the level seen a year ago or were higher, and in some instances quite significantly so.
And when we compare second quarter sale prices to their 2022 peaks, 33 states are at or above the highs seen last year, but most of the Western States have yet to fully recover. In the South, Louisiana is still lagging by a good amount, as is New York State on the East Coast.
But as you are all very aware, all markets are different. I thought it would be interesting to dig a little deeper into the data to see which metro markets have seen significant gains over the past 12 months. It’s going to be interesting specifically because of the fact that mortgage rates have risen so much.
These are markets where sale prices are far above their 2022 peak sale prices. Now I must add that I only looked at markets where more than 1,000 transactions occurred in the last quarter, which takes out some of the volatility. Notably, even though the state of Virginia’s home prices in the quarter were flat when compared to their 2022 peak, the Roanoke market was up by over 9%. And in Pennsylvania, where state prices were only 1.2% above their 2022 peak, Reading is up by 7.6% and York by 7.4%. And in Georgia, where state sale prices were up a modest 1.6%, homes in Macon have leapt by over 13% and prices are up by 6.9% in Savannah.
But, on the other end of the spectrum, there are markets which are underperforming their respective states and, unsurprisingly, California tops the list with three of their metros seeing prices significantly below that of the state as a whole. In other parts of the country, several metro areas which were relatively affordable before the pandemic saw an influx of remote workers and this led prices to skyrocket, and these will take some time to recover. This is particularly true in the Austin and Boise market areas.
I would add that, of the counties across the country where there were more than 1,000 transactions in the second quarter, half have met or exceeded their prior peak and—of the half where sale prices were still lower—the average shortfall is only around 4% and there are just seven counties in the country where sale prices are down by more than 10% from their 2022 peaks.
Now, what I see in the data is that the U.S. housing market, although certainly not fully healed, is headed in the right direction even when faced with mortgage rates that remain remarkably high. So, with sale prices recovering and still faced with stubbornly high financing costs, what does affordability look like?
Well, according to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB), of the 241 metros that they track, just 40.5% of sales in the second quarter were affordable to households making the area’s median income—that’s the second lowest share of sales seen since they started generating this dataset a decade ago. Now, their data does go back to 2004, but the interest rate series that they used to use was discontinued, so it’s not accurate to compare their data today with anything before 2012.
These were the most affordable markets in the second quarter and their locations should not be of any great surprise. Average sale prices in these markets were measured around $203,000—that’s just marginally above 50% of the national sale price in the quarter, which was $402,600.
And unfortunately this should not surprise you either. On the other end of the spectrum, the top-10 least affordable housing markets were all in California, but it gets worse than that. The top 15 least affordable markets again, all in California, and 19 out of the top 25 were in the Golden State!
As far as I can see, the ownership housing market is still showing remarkable resiliency, especially given that mortgage rates have more than doubled from their lows and they’ve risen from 4.8% at the start of the second quarter of last year to 7% at the end of the second quarter of 2023.
Now, I still expect to see rates starting to slowly move lower as we go through the second half of the year. This will help with prices and, to a degree, affordability, but until we see a significant increase in the number of homes listed for sale, the market is going to remain unbalanced.
As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts on this subject so feel free to leave your comments below. Until next month, stay safe out there and I’ll see you soon. Bye now.
To see the latest real estate market data for your area, visit our quarterly Market Updates page.
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.