If you’ve lived on Whidbey for a while, you know the feeling: the view is still spectacular, but the acreage that used to be a joyful hobby is starting to feel like a full-time job. You aren’t alone. For many homeowners in our community, retirement isn’t just a distant date on the calendar anymore—it’s happening right now.
And with that transition comes a big question: Is this the right home for my next chapter?
A wave of homeowners is choosing to “right-size” this year. They aren’t just moving to smaller spaces; they are moving to better lifestyles. Here is why so many of your neighbors are deciding that 2026 is the year to make a move, and why it might be the perfect time for you, too.
The word “downsizing” often sounds like you are giving something up. But on Whidbey Island, it’s usually the opposite. It’s about trading a riding mower for a kayak, or swapping a weekend of preparing your home for repairs for a Saturday afternoon browsing the galleries in Langley.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently identified the top reasons people over 60 are moving, and they almost all point to one thing: Lifestyle Quality.
For many islanders, “downsizing” often means moving closer to the ferry in Clinton or the bridge in Oak Harbor to make those trips to see grandkids in Seattle or Everett easier. It’s about reducing the friction between you and the people you love.
We love our forests and green spaces, but maintaining a large property on Whidbey requires serious effort. Many sellers are looking for single-level homes in communities like Bayview Corner or Greenbank where the yard work is minimal, the stairs are non-existent, and the floor plan is designed for the future, not the past.
Utilities, insurance, and maintenance costs on older, larger island homes have risen. Moving to a smaller, more energy-efficient home in town—whether that’s Coupeville, Freeland, or Oak Harbor—can significantly reduce those monthly expenses. This leaves more budget for travel and fun, especially when you have a solid financial plan for buying.
If the lifestyle benefits are the why, the financial landscape is the how.
According to recent data, the average homeowner with a mortgage has nearly $300,000 in equity. On Whidbey Island, where many residents have owned their homes for decades, that number is often much higher. To stay on top of these shifting values, we recommend subscribing to our Market Pulse reports.
When you decide to sell a long-held property here, two powerful things happen:
This combination puts you in a powerful position to buy your next home—often with a significant cash down payment or even an all-cash offer. This allows you to secure a smaller, more manageable property without the stress of a large monthly payment.
Downsizing on Whidbey Island isn’t about closing the book; it’s about starting a new, more exciting chapter. It’s about ensuring your home serves your life, rather than your life serving your home. Once you are ready to make the leap, our Moving Checklist can help you stay organized every step of the way.
If you are curious about how much equity you’re sitting on, or just want to chat about what “right-sizing” looks like in our current market, we are here to help.
Want a step-by-step roadmap before you list? Grab our Seller Resources guide and start planning with confidence.
Written by Si Fisher.
This report provides a Local Look at the June 2025 Northwest MLS data, with a keen eye on how it impacts the Whidbey Island real estate market. There have been interesting shifts, and this analysis aims to offer a straightforward perspective, blending broader market insights with our hyper-local reality. The primary focus for tracking market supply and demand includes closed and pending sales, reflecting demand, and new and active listings, indicating supply.
Following a dip in closed sales in May, which was attributed to fallout from stock market fluctuations and economic turmoil in April, the housing market has shown a rebound. June’s residential closed sales across the Northwest MLS were almost precisely at their year-ago level. Pending sales for single-family homes experienced a 3% year-over-year increase. On the supply side, new listings increased by approximately 12% this June, and the total of active listings at month-end was 37% higher than June 2024’s inventory. While this represents a significant increase in inventory, the pace of year-over-year growth has slightly decelerated from the 39% observed last month.
The median sale price for closed single-family home sales climbed 3% from last year, reaching $695,000. This reverses the 1% decline seen in May and establishes a new high-water mark for the year, exceeding the $680,000 price level in April. This indicates that buyers across Washington re-engaged with the market in June, driving both increased sales and higher prices. However, the current high level of inventory suggests that buyers will likely gain more negotiating power later this summer.
Let's narrow our focus to our beloved Whidbey Island. While the broader Western Washington market provides context, a more precise understanding comes from examining our local communities. When it comes to Whidbey Island homes for sale, we track distinct trends, particularly in areas like Coupeville, Oak Harbor, Langley, Freeland, Clinton, and Greenbank.
Residential closed sales in the four-county greater Seattle area saw a slight dip of just half a percent year-over-year. This was largely due to a 3% gain in King County offsetting minor declines in other counties. King County's recovery is particularly notable after its significant 14% year-over-year decline in May, suggesting that some buyers re-entered the market after an earlier pause.
On Whidbey Island, the latest data provides further insight into sales activity:
This demonstrates a clear divergence in sales volume across the island, with the northern part experiencing robust growth while the southern/central areas show a slight contraction. Understanding these hyper-local nuances is crucial, highlighting the benefit of partnering with a Whidbey Island Specialist.
While Snohomish County experienced a 2% decrease in median sale price, King County led with a 7% gain, surpassing the million-dollar mark once again. Kitsap and Pierce counties also saw price increases of 4% and 5%, respectively.
For Whidbey Island, median sales prices continue to show strength:
These figures underscore the continued vitality of the Whidbey Island real estate market, reflecting consistent buyer demand.
Looking ahead, pending sales across the greater Seattle region returned to modest year-over-year increases, totaling 3%. This was led by an 11% rise in Pierce County and a 4% rise in King County, though partially offset by declines of 4% in Kitsap and 5% in Snohomish County.
For Whidbey Island, weekly reports indicate:
This mixed activity in pending sales suggests that while demand is present, buyers are becoming more discerning, a trend that active listings will further emphasize.
On the supply side, the four-county greater Seattle area had nearly 9,000 active listings at the end of June, representing a 40% increase from the same time last year. While substantial, this gain is a smaller percentage than the 45% year-on-year growth observed in May, indicating a deceleration in the inventory buildup.
Here on Whidbey Island, inventory levels reveal an interesting narrative:
This increasing inventory is favorable for buyers, offering more choices and potentially greater negotiating power as the summer progresses. For sellers, it underscores the importance of a well-presented and effectively priced property from the outset. Explore available homes through our Our Active Listings page.
The June report confirmed that greater-Seattle-region buyers re-engaged with the market in June, marking a return to a "new normal" in sales activity after a pause in April. As the seasonal cooldown in demand is anticipated, coinciding with the peak of summer, the market dynamic is likely to favor buyers who continue their home search in the second half of the year. Furthermore, increased inventory is expected to introduce some competitive pressure on sellers who have yet to receive offers.
For those considering a move to our beautiful island, exploring our Explore Whidbey Island guides can provide invaluable insights into communities like Coupeville, Oak Harbor, Langley, Freeland, and Greenbank.
Statistics only tell part of the story. The true value lies in understanding how these numbers apply to your specific real estate goals on Whidbey Island. Whether buying a piece of island paradise or selling a current home, partnering with a local expert is essential. Windermere brokers on Whidbey Island possess an intimate knowledge of its diverse neighborhoods, unique features, and evolving market dynamics. The focus extends beyond mere transactions to fostering connections and building community—a reflection of the "Human Algorithm" philosophy in action.
Don’t just navigate the Whidbey Island real estate market; master it. We are here to provide the insights, strategies, and local connections that make all the difference. Ready to make a move? Connect with us today.
Contributed by Si Fisher
Easter on Whidbey Island is like opening a giant, community-wide Easter egg: filled with surprises, wrapped in the beautiful scenery of the Pacific Northwest, and, let's be honest, probably a bit more chocolate than anyone needs. This year, the island is hopping with activities for everyone from the tiniest of tots to adults who are kids at heart. Here's your golden egg of information on where to find the fun!
Kick-off your Easter weekend with a bang at the Holmes Harbor Rod & Gun Club on March 30, at noon. Kids 11 and under are invited to hunt for Easter treasures, enjoy prizes, and munch on hot dogs. And for a little extra magic, the local 4H group will introduce some adorable animals. Don't forget your basket, and try to hop in by 11:30 AM to catch all the fun.
Date & Time: March 30, Noon - 1:00 PM
Location: 3334 Brooks Hill Road, Langley, WA 98260
Prefer a hunt with a side of fizz? Head to The Thirsty Crab Brewery on March 30, from 10:00 AM to 12:00 PM, for an egg-stravaganza that includes more than just hunting for eggs. This event is bursting with activities – think Easter Bunny photos, a bouncy castle, and crafts, making it a perfect family outing. Plus, with age-appropriate hunts for those 12 and under, every child gets a fair crack at finding those hidden treasures.
Date & Time: March 30, 10:00 AM - 12:00 PM
Location: Thirsty Crab Brewery, 9000 SR 525, Clinton
Hop your way to Meerkerk Gardens for an Easter Egg Hunt amidst flowers in peak bloom! On March 30, with hunts at 11 AM and again at 2 PM, children 10 & under can explore this botanical paradise for hidden eggs. Little explorers up to age 5 have their own special area near the Gazebo, while the 6-10-year-olds embark on their adventure in a separate spot. Don't miss the chance to meet the Meerkerk Bunny and experience the gardens during the most enchanting time of the year.
Date & Time: March 30, 11:00 AM - 2:30 PM
Location: 3531 Meerkerk Lane, Greenbank
Next on the list, Whidbey Farm & Market is pulling out all the stops for their 2nd annual Easter event, happening on the last two weekends in March. Families can enjoy an egg hunt, a candy cannon, a bouncy house, and a meet-and-greet with the Easter Bunny. And for the adults? An Easter Egg Hunt under the stars on March 29th, with over $500 worth of prizes, games, bonfires, and music to keep the festive spirit alive.
Date & Time: March 30, 11:00 AM - 3:00 PM
Location: 1240 Arnold Road, Oak Harbor
Join the Oak Harbor Main Street Association for a cherished community event at Smith Park. On March 30, from 11:30 AM to 1:00 PM, families can enjoy a sensory-friendly hunt before the main event at 12:30 PM for kids up to age 10. It’s not just about the eggs; learn about the majestic Garry Oak trees and snag some free books in this educational and fun-filled outing.
Date & Time: March 30, 11:30 AM - 1:00 PM
Location: Smith Park, SE Midway Boulevard & SE 9th Avenue, Oak Harbor
Between the egg hunts and the Easter Bunny meet-and-greets, we're reminded of the joys of community and the warmth of coming home. In the spirit of new beginnings this Easter, why not consider finding your perfect nest on Whidbey Island? Working with a local broker who knows the island inside and out can crack open a world of opportunities, whether you're buying, selling, or just exploring your options. Remember, the best hunts end with finding exactly what you were looking for, and in real estate, it's no different.
Happy Easter!
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This video shows Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2024. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market. See more market insights on our blog here.
This was number one on my list last year and, so far, my forecast was spot on. The reason why I’m calling it out again is because the market performed better in 2023 than I expected. Continued price growth, combined with significantly higher mortgage rates, might suggest to some that the market will implode in 2024, but I find this implausible.
The U.S. economy has been remarkably resilient, which has led the Federal Reserve to indicate that they will keep mortgage rates higher for longer to tame inflation. But data shows inflation and the broader economy are starting to slow, which should allow mortgage rates to ease in 2024. That said, I think rates will only fall to around 6% by the end of the year.
Although I expect a modest increase in listing activity in 2024, many homeowners will be hesitant to sell and lose their current mortgage rate. The latest data shows 80% of mortgaged homeowners in the U.S. have rates at or below 5%. Although they may not be inclined to sell right now, when rates fall to within 1.5% of their current rate, some will be motivated to move.
While many forecasters said home prices would fall in 2023, that was not the case, as the lack of inventory propped up home values. Given that it’s unlikely that there will be a significant increase in the number of homes for sale, I don’t expect prices to drop in 2024. However, growth will be a very modest 1%, which is the lowest pace seen for many years, but growth all the same.
During the pandemic there were a number of more affordable markets across the country that experienced significant price increases, followed by price declines post-pandemic. I expected home prices in those areas to take longer to recover than the rest of the nation, but I’m surprised by how quickly they have started to grow, with most markets having either matched their historic highs or getting close to it – even in the face of very high borrowing costs. In 2024, I expect prices to match or exceed their 2022 highs in the vast majority of metro areas across the country.
Although new construction remains tepid, builders are benefiting from the lack of supply in the resale market and are taking a greater share of listings. While this might sound like a positive for builders, it’s coming at a cost through lower list prices and increased incentives such as mortgage rate buy downs. Although material costs have softened, it will remain very hard for builders to deliver enough housing to meet the demand.
With home prices continuing to rise and the pace of borrowing costs far exceeding income growth, affordability will likely erode further in 2024. For affordability to improve, it would require either a significant drop in home values, a significant drop in mortgage rates, a significant increase in household incomes, or some combination of the three. But I’m afraid this is very unlikely. First-time home buyers will be the hardest hit by this continued lack of affordable housing.
The government has started to take housing and affordability more seriously, with several states already having adopted new land use policies aimed at releasing developable land. In 2024, I hope cities and counties will continue to ease their restrictive land use policies. I also hope they’ll continue to streamline the permitting process and reduce the fees that are charged to builders, as these costs are passed directly onto the home buyer, which further impacts affordability.
Many expected that the end of forbearance would bring a veritable tsunami of homes to market, but that didn’t happen. At its peak, almost 1-in-10 homes in America were in the program, but that has fallen to below 1%. That said, foreclosure starts have picked up, but still remain well below pre-pandemic levels. Look for delinquency levels to continue rising in 2024, but they will only be returning to the long-term average and are not a cause for concern.
2023 will likely be remembered as the year when home sales were the lowest since the housing bubble burst in 2008. I expect the number of homes for sale to improve modestly in 2024 which, combined with mortgage rates trending lower, should result in about 4.4 million home sales. Ultimately though, demand exceeding supply will mean that sellers will still have the upper hand.
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
The following analysis of select counties of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.
The pace of job growth continues to slow in Western Washington, as the region added only 21,907 new positions over the past 12 months. This represented a growth rate of 1.4%, which was the lowest pace of new jobs added since the pandemic ended.
The regional unemployment rate in August was 5.8%, which was marginally below the 6% rate we saw in the same quarter in 2022. A few smaller counties lost jobs over the past 12 months while King County’s employment levels rose a meager .4%, mainly due to job losses in the technology sector. I’ve said before that I’m not convinced that the U.S. is going to enter a recession; I still stand by that theory. Slowing job growth does not necessarily need to be a precursor to a recession, but I expect that we will see lackluster growth until next spring at the earliest.
❱ In the third quarter of 2023, 14,970 homes sold. This was down 22% from the third quarter of 2022 and 1% lower than in the second quarter of this year.
❱ Sales fell even as the average number of homes for sale increased 29.5% from the second quarter. This is clearly a sign that significantly higher mortgage rates are having an impact on the market.
❱ Sales fell in all counties except San Juan compared to the third quarter of 2022. They were up in 9 of the 14 counties covered in this report compared to the second quarter of 2023. San Juan, Mason, Grays Harbor, and Whatcom counties saw significant increases.
❱ Pending sales fell 6% compared to the second quarter of this year, suggesting that closings in the upcoming quarter may be lackluster unless mortgage rates fall, which I think is highly unlikely.
❱ Prices rose 2.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022 and were .6% higher than in the second quarter of this year. The average home sale price was $776,205.
❱ Compared to the second quarter of this year, sale prices were higher in all counties except Grays Harbor (-.5%), Kitsap (-1.5%), Clallam (-1.6%), Whatcom (-2.6%), and Skagit (-3%).
❱ Compared to the prior year, the pace of price growth slowed in the third quarter. This wasn’t too surprising given that the market was coming off record high prices in the summer of 2022. But what was surprising was that prices rose over the previous quarter despite the fact that mortgage rates were above 7% for almost the entire quarter.
❱ I don’t expect prices to move far from current levels in the coming months, and they likely won’t rise again until mortgage rates start to fall. When prices do rise, I anticipate that the pace of growth will be far more modest than we have become accustomed to.
Mortgage rates continued trending higher in the third quarter of 2023 and are now at levels we have not seen since the fall of 2000. Mortgage rates are tied to the interest rate (yield) on 10-year treasuries, and they move in the opposite direction of the economy. Unfortunately for mortgage rates, the economy remains relatively buoyant, and though inflation is down significantly from its high, it is still elevated. These major factors and many minor ones are pushing Treasury yields higher, which is pushing mortgage rates up. Given the current position of the Federal Reserve, which intends to keep rates “higher for longer,” it is unlikely that home buyers will get much reprieve when it comes to borrowing costs any time soon.
With such a persistently positive economy, I have had to revise my forecast yet again. I now believe rates will hold at current levels before starting to trend down in the spring of next year.
❱ It took an average of 32 days for homes to sell in the third quarter of 2023. This was 8 more days than in the same quarter of 2022, but 3 fewer days compared to the second quarter of this year.
❱ Snohomish and King counties were the tightest markets in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of only 19 days to find a buyer. Homes for sale in San Juan County took the longest time to find a buyer (57 days).
❱ All counties except Snohomish saw average days on market rise from the same period in 2022. Market time fell in 9 of the 14 counties compared to the prior quarter.
❱ The greatest fall in market time compared to the second quarter was in San Juan County, where market time fell 23 days.
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
Although it was good that listing activity rose in the third quarter, it still remains well below levels that can be considered normal. This is unlikely to change anytime soon given that over 86% of Washington homeowners with mortgages have an interest rate below 5% and more than a quarter have rates at or below 3%. There is little incentive for them to sell if they don’t have to.
More germane is the disconnect between what homeowners believe their homes are worth and what buyers can afford with mortgage rates in the mid-7% range. Most sellers appear to be getting their asking prices, or very close to it, which reflects their confidence in the market. However, home buyers are being squeezed by multi-decade high borrowing costs.
It is all quite a quandary. However, taking all the factors into consideration, sellers still have the upper hand but not enough to move the needle from the position it was in last quarter
Given all the factors discussed above, the needle stays in the same position as the last quarter. The market still heavily favors sellers, but if rates rise much further, headwinds will likely increase.
Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner gives an updated analysis of the U.S. housing market in 2023, using data released by The National Association of REALTORS® on listing activity, home sales, price growth, and more.
This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
Hello there, I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew. The National Association of REALTORS® released their data on the U.S. housing market in August, and it contained a few things which I found interesting and wanted to share with you.
As you can clearly see here, the number of homes for sale remains at close to historic lows. When adjusted for seasonality, there were just 1.03 million single-family and condominium homes for sale in the month of August, and that’s down 8.3% from a year ago and the second lowest level in 2023. When adjusted for seasonal variations, there were just over 911,000 single-family homes for sale in the month, that’s 15% lower than a year ago and 36% below August of 2019. And the condominium market is not faring any better with just over 123,000 units available for purchase, listing activity was down year-over-year by just over 9%.
And to give you a little different perspective, this chart shows you the total number of units for sale in the month of August going back more than 20 years and I think it gives a pretty good indication as to how tight the U.S. housing market really is.
Now, we’ve talked before about the reasons why supply is so limited, and the blame is almost totally attributable to mortgage rates with sellers remarkably reluctant to move because that would mean losing the historically low mortgage rate that they currently benefit from. And as the old saying goes, “you can’t buy what’s not for sale,” and this is certainly true in the housing market today.
With such limited choice in the marketplace, it’s unsurprising to see home sales having plummeted following the pandemic induced surge we saw in 2021. At an annual sales rate of 4.04 million units, that is only 40,000 more than the low seen this January and we are now holding at levels we haven’t seen since 2010. Interestingly, single-family sales did see a little jump at the start of this year, but they have since pulled back—likely a function of rising financing costs, which were getting close to 7% in June.
But the condominium market, while certainly down significantly, appears to be somewhat more resilient. I find this interesting as we have not seen any palpable increase in listing activity for multifamily units.
When prices started to fall in the summer of 2022, many expected to see them continue to plunge in a manner similar to that seen following 2007 collapse, but that has certainly not been the case. Sale prices have rebounded and remain remarkably resilient—especially given significantly higher financing costs.
Single-family home prices paint a similar picture with prices down by 1.8% from peak; but up 3.7% year over year, and up 11.2% from the start of the year. Interestingly, sale prices in the Northeast were actually 3.5% higher in August than their 2022 peak. And condominium prices are just 0.1% below the high seen in June of last year. Prices are now up 6.2% year over year and are 11.6% higher than we saw at the end of 2022.
Now, of course the data shown here is unlikely to reflect the recent surge in mortgage rates so it will be interesting to see what impact that has not just on sales but sale prices when the September and October data is published.
My intuition suggests that—even with mortgage rates where they are today—as long as they don’t move significantly higher, prices at the national level are unlikely to collapse. But I do see sales volumes pulling back further as listing activity remains very constrained.
This chart shows a different way to look at the impact that mortgage rates are having on the market. The dark blue line shows year-over-year home price growth, and the light blue line shows the 12-month change in average mortgage payments.
Although we did see that annual growth in mortgage payments fall to just 10% in June of this year—the first time we have seen that since 2021—it has subsequently jumped back up. This means that a buyer of a median priced house in the U.S. is faced with payments that are 26 and a half percent higher than they were 12 months ago. At the same time, home price growth has stalled.
As I’ve mentioned in several past videos, I find it unlikely that inventory levels will increase significantly in 2023, and I also believe that supply will be constrained next year as well as rates remain at elevated levels.
As we know, it is this lack of inventory that has helped to support home prices; however, there is a breaking point. 10-year bond yields are holding at multi-year highs and do not appear to be thinking of pulling back at any time soon—especially given new bond issuances that the country is going bring to market in order to address our burgeoning debt levels.
And it’s because of this that I now expect to see rates remaining higher for longer, and the question then becomes how much tolerance will buyers have if mortgage rates hold where they are today or if they head closer to 8%.
Although I am not expecting this to happen, it is possible. And if it does, then sales will fall further and the underpinning of price stability will certainly be eroded. And there you have it. As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts on this subject so feel free to leave your comments below. Until next month, stay safe out there and I’ll see you soon. Bye now.
To see the latest housing data for your area, visit our quarterly Market Updates page.
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
This Charity is being spearheaded by Paula Peters from our property management division in partnership with the Readiness to Learn Foundation. We are on a mission to ensure no child goes cold this winter on Whidbey Island.
📆 Date: Now through mid-November
🌟 Six Glorious Years: This marks our sixth annual Coats for Kids drive. Over the past years, we’ve donated an astounding 1,200+ pieces of cold-weather clothing, with a significant majority being essential coats and jackets!
📦 Donation Boxes: If you would like to HELP, please drop off NEW coats and boots at our offices in Freeland or Langley through mid November
Freeland Office
360/331-6636 5531
5531 Freeland Avenue
Langley Office
360/221-8898
223 Second Street
💌 Distance No Bar: Purchase items online and have items shipped to our offices! Heartwarming support pours in from all corners, including a recent kind donation from a continued supporter in Florida!
💵 Monetary Donations: If you’re considering a monetary contribution, please write checks payable to “Readiness to Learn”.
🎯 100 Coats/Jackets! Alongside, we’ll happily accept rain boots, cozy hats, mittens, gloves, and warm socks.
📲 For our tech-savvy supporters, keep an eye out for our Amazon Wish List. After its success last year, it’s making a comeback!
🙏 When you donate, do let Paula know. Every contributor deserves a heartfelt acknowledgment!
🌈 Donations can range from toddler sizes to adult, and any color is welcome. Just a small reminder, please ensure all donated items are BRAND NEW WITH TAGS.
🔊 Let’s amplify our reach! Inform your clients, chat with your family, call up your friends, and let’s come together as a community for this noble cause.
Warm Hearts Make Warm Kids! Join us in this heartwarming endeavor and ensure every child on Whidbey Island experiences a cozy winter. Your contribution can make a world of difference! 🧡
Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner demonstrates how the U.S. housing market is adapting to low inventory levels. He touches on the new construction industry, supply changes in large metro areas, median home sale prices, and more.
This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
Hello there, I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew. As we are all aware, the housing market has softened considerably with the number of existing homes available to buy close to record lows. Today we are going to talk about supply, and how the market is starting to adapt to low inventory levels.
This chart shows the average number of homes on the market by year. Although year to date we have seen a little bit of an uptick, it’s clear the country remains supply-starved. And with just over three months of inventory—as opposed to the normal four to six—the market is clearly out of balance. But even though inventory levels have risen nationally, as I’ve said many times before, not all markets are equal.
This chart shows how supply levels have changed. The data here is representative of the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the country. The horizontal axis shows the change in inventory versus the second quarter of 2022, while the vertical axis shows the difference and the number of homes for sale versus the second quarter of 2019. I think you’ll agree that the difference is stark. Although two-thirds of the metropolitan areas have seen the number of homes for sale improved versus the same period a year ago, just one (Austin, TX) had more homes for sale higher in the second quarter of this year than it had in the second quarter of 2019.
Interestingly, on a percentage basis, smaller metro areas saw the greatest decline compared to three years ago. For example, in Hartford, CT, the average number of homes on the market in the second quarter was just over 900, down by 80% from the second quarter of 2019 where there was an average of over 4,400 units for sale. Supply levels were down by 78% in Stamford, CT; 75% in New Haven, CT; and 74% in Allentown, PA.
It is true that supply levels are generally higher when compared to a year ago, with the greatest increase being seen in select markets in Florida, Tennessee, Texas, and Oklahoma; however, other than in Austin, supply levels remain well below their long-term averages. So, how is the market adapting? The answer is rather interesting. Even with all the talk of escalating material, land, and labor costs, it’s the new home industry that has been taking advantage of the lack of housing supply.
This chart shows the share of new homes on the market compared to their resale counterparts—here we are just looking at single-family homes. Historically, new construction makes up roughly 10% of active listings at any one time, but as you can see here, that share has been rising not just since the end of the pandemic but for the past several years. Although off the high seen a few months ago, 30% of the single-family homes for sale this July were brand new. I find this particularly interesting because, historically speaking, a premium was paid in order to buy a new home rather than an existing one.
With the share of new homes for sale holding at a four-decade high, the share of sales themselves is at a level we haven’t seen since 2005. But even though we know that there is demand for housing, shouldn’t sales be constrained by mortgage rates? Well, what is happening is that builders are attracting buyers through incentives, and here we’re talking about mortgage rate buydowns which are becoming increasingly prevalent across the country.
In fact, a recent survey from John Burns Consulting suggested that 30% of home builders reported using interest buydowns more in the second quarter of this year than they had previously. And this is attracting buyers to visit new development communities.
An example of these buydowns is the 2/1 program that DR Horton—the largest home builder in the country—is offering at some communities. This program gives buyers a mortgage rate that starts at 3% for the first year, rises to 4% in year two, and then goes to 5% for the balance of the 30-year term. That’s pretty compelling, given where mortgage rates are today.
The bottom line is that as far as I can see, the new home industry will continue to take an outsized share of the market for the balance of 2023 and likely through most of 2024. That said, once the market starts to normalize, I expect them to pull back from these incentive programs, making them more likely to start raising asking prices, and we will return to the traditional spread between the prices of new and resale homes.
Although it’s pleasing to see more homes being built, I still believe that the country will still be running a housing deficit when it comes to meeting demographic demand and this will continue to hurt first-time buyers who continue to be priced out of the market.
As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts on this subject so feel free to leave your comments below. Until next month, stay safe out there and I’ll see you soon. Bye now.
To see the latest real estate market data for your area, visit our Market Update page.
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner gives an updated look at U.S. home prices and housing affordability in 2023 by examining two key second-quarter reports from ATTOM Data Solutions and the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).
This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
Hello there, I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew. Today we are going to look at home prices and housing affordability. To do this I will be looking at the second quarter sales price data from ATTOM Data Solutions and we will also look at the just released National Association of Home Builders Housing Opportunity Index for the second quarter.
Starting with the year-over-year change in sale prices at the state level, there aren’t any great surprises. For the past several months I’ve been saying that as the Western U.S. saw the greatest price growth during the pandemic, so it’s not surprising to see most states sale prices in the quarter below the level seen a year ago. But it was pleasing to see that sale prices in 36 states either matched the level seen a year ago or were higher, and in some instances quite significantly so.
And when we compare second quarter sale prices to their 2022 peaks, 33 states are at or above the highs seen last year, but most of the Western States have yet to fully recover. In the South, Louisiana is still lagging by a good amount, as is New York State on the East Coast.
But as you are all very aware, all markets are different. I thought it would be interesting to dig a little deeper into the data to see which metro markets have seen significant gains over the past 12 months. It’s going to be interesting specifically because of the fact that mortgage rates have risen so much.
These are markets where sale prices are far above their 2022 peak sale prices. Now I must add that I only looked at markets where more than 1,000 transactions occurred in the last quarter, which takes out some of the volatility. Notably, even though the state of Virginia’s home prices in the quarter were flat when compared to their 2022 peak, the Roanoke market was up by over 9%. And in Pennsylvania, where state prices were only 1.2% above their 2022 peak, Reading is up by 7.6% and York by 7.4%. And in Georgia, where state sale prices were up a modest 1.6%, homes in Macon have leapt by over 13% and prices are up by 6.9% in Savannah.
But, on the other end of the spectrum, there are markets which are underperforming their respective states and, unsurprisingly, California tops the list with three of their metros seeing prices significantly below that of the state as a whole. In other parts of the country, several metro areas which were relatively affordable before the pandemic saw an influx of remote workers and this led prices to skyrocket, and these will take some time to recover. This is particularly true in the Austin and Boise market areas.
I would add that, of the counties across the country where there were more than 1,000 transactions in the second quarter, half have met or exceeded their prior peak and—of the half where sale prices were still lower—the average shortfall is only around 4% and there are just seven counties in the country where sale prices are down by more than 10% from their 2022 peaks.
Now, what I see in the data is that the U.S. housing market, although certainly not fully healed, is headed in the right direction even when faced with mortgage rates that remain remarkably high. So, with sale prices recovering and still faced with stubbornly high financing costs, what does affordability look like?
Well, according to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB), of the 241 metros that they track, just 40.5% of sales in the second quarter were affordable to households making the area’s median income—that’s the second lowest share of sales seen since they started generating this dataset a decade ago. Now, their data does go back to 2004, but the interest rate series that they used to use was discontinued, so it’s not accurate to compare their data today with anything before 2012.
These were the most affordable markets in the second quarter and their locations should not be of any great surprise. Average sale prices in these markets were measured around $203,000—that’s just marginally above 50% of the national sale price in the quarter, which was $402,600.
And unfortunately this should not surprise you either. On the other end of the spectrum, the top-10 least affordable housing markets were all in California, but it gets worse than that. The top 15 least affordable markets again, all in California, and 19 out of the top 25 were in the Golden State!
As far as I can see, the ownership housing market is still showing remarkable resiliency, especially given that mortgage rates have more than doubled from their lows and they’ve risen from 4.8% at the start of the second quarter of last year to 7% at the end of the second quarter of 2023.
Now, I still expect to see rates starting to slowly move lower as we go through the second half of the year. This will help with prices and, to a degree, affordability, but until we see a significant increase in the number of homes listed for sale, the market is going to remain unbalanced.
As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts on this subject so feel free to leave your comments below. Until next month, stay safe out there and I’ll see you soon. Bye now.
To see the latest real estate market data for your area, visit our quarterly Market Updates page.
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
Contributed by Si Fisher
Ahoy, future Whidbey Island dwellers! If you're toying with the idea of becoming a homeowner on our scenic slice of paradise, let me provide you with a pun-intended map to help you navigate your readiness.
Your journey towards homeownership sets sail with a keen look at your financial ship-shape. Can you smoothly ride the waves of monthly mortgage payments, property taxes, not to mention other hidden costs of homeownership like a seasoned sea captain? If your answer is a confident 'Aye', your ship is ready to set sail. If you're spotting some leaks, it's best to fix up the breaches first. As a Whidbey Island Real Estate Specialist, I can help you navigate these turbulent waters and ensure your journey to homeownership isn't marred by unseen icebergs. I can introduce you to one of my trusted local lenders to get a solid plan in action, charting the course to your future home.
Is your career/retirement securely docked or are you still sailing towards new job horizons? If your voyage to Whidbey Island is tied to job opportunities, it's essential to ensure your employment is as steadfast as a lighthouse amidst a storm before plunging into the house-hunting depths. Remember, the stability of your income will act like a compass that will point towards the amount and type of mortgage you can qualify for.
Acquiring a home is more than just purchasing four walls and a roof; you're docking into a vibrant community. Consider whether the neighborhood aligns with your lifestyle – schools, local amenities, and let's not forget the quality of those soul-soothing sunset views!
Chart your course wisely. Before embarking on your home-buying voyage, delve into the depths of the Whidbey Island real estate market. Understanding different types of homes, neighborhoods, and current market trends are essential. No need to be a lone sailor lost at sea; a Whidbey Island Realtor can steer you in the right direction, providing the guidance and insight you need.
To better steer your course towards home ownership on Whidbey Island, consider these additional steps:
Enlisting a Whidbey Island Realtor is like having an experienced navigator to ensure your voyage to homeownership is as smooth as a calm sea breeze:
So, are you ready to drop anchor at Whidbey Island? Reach out to a Whidbey Island Specialist today. We're ready to guide you through the exciting journey to homeownership and help make your dream of island living a reality. Onwards to your future Whidbey Island home, sailor!
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